Risk Butler is a 24/7 online web service to make and manage predictions of future value fluctuations of financial assets, liabilities & portfolios.
It provides decision-support and risk management of financial portfolios.
Risk Butler typically uses millions of Monte Carlo simulations, a statistical method, to make the predictions.
Risk Butler provides ease of use and understanding through visualisations of such information as chance of profit and risk of loss. Graphical presentation of results is a key feature.
The diagram shown is an example that illustrates the chance of getting a profit of at least 10 percent in 30 days for a range of equities. The individual areas and colors of the circles denote the chances, i.e. the largest circle represents the equity most likely to return a profit of 10 percent within the next 30 days.
Risk Butler is social*, enabling users to share, copy and comment on portfolios.
A financial portfolio may include all kinds of products that are sufficiently liquid e.g. money (cash, loans/deposits) & foreign exchange (FX), commodities, equities (shares), bonds*, mortgage backed obligations*, swaps*, and forwards, futures & options.
Communication is encrypted, and portfolios can be kept 100% private on your preferred device and in your private database at IBM.
Risk Butler only requires an updated internet browser and an internet connection, and is built using the newest technologies such as html5, css3, svg graphics, cloud computing and map-reduce type storage suitable for Big Data analysis.
Use any device: Computer, laptop, iPad/tablet or mobile phone - Risk Butler synchronizes between devices.
Risk Butler is patent pending, currently Beta and free to use.
*) Functionality not yet fully integrated or finalised.
According to The Economist, December 7’th 2013, BlackRock (www.blackrock.com), an asset-management company that is the world’s biggest investor, has a system called Aladdin which predicts future values of financial portfolios using a Monte Carlo method. The system is maintained by 2000 employees and is partly financed by user fees of the amount USD 400m.
Risk Butler uses the Monte Carlo method and is very simple to use: Use Risk Butler.
It does Market risk (commodity, equity, FX, interest rate*, volatility*) and Counterparty credit risk*.
Risk Butler is also designed and prepared for portfolio Performance measurement and attribution*.
Time is measured in milliseconds in Risk Butler and is designed to work with intraday market data: This means for example that sampling for the Monte Carlo simulations can be done not only on daily data but also on intraday data such as hourly data.
More than 44.000 stocks from the countries listed below.
146 commodities within the below sectors. Where there is no spot commodity market, the front month contract - the nearest unexpired futures contract of a given commodity - is used as a proxy.
168 currencies denoted according to ISO 4217.
Forwards and options on FX rates is upcoming. Cross rates between any of the 168 currencies can be used.
Money (cash and non-interest bearing deposits & loans) can be registered in any of the 168 currencies.
Bonds, swaps, mortgage backed obligations are upcoming.
Money market products (interest bearing products) are upcoming.
84 exchange traded futures within the below sectors/types.
The generic option type which may take any of the spot positions of Risk Butler as underlying. Exotic generic options and exchange traded options are upcoming.
OTC traded forwards are upcoming. These will be of the generic type and able to take any of the spot positions of Risk Butler as underlying.
Use cases are upcoming!